The biggest security threat to the EU right now is Hungary

By: Dženana Karup Druško

Through the Republic of Srpska Aid Fund, Hungary is reportedly planning to strengthen dedicated production in the RS, and together with Serbia plans to establish a humanitarian center in the Brcko District. Such a "humanitarian" center in Brcko would be of great geostrategic importance for Dodik and Vučić: the unification of the territory of the Republic of Srpska, which the district now intersects, and its unhindered connection with Serbia; cutting the NATO corridor established by the Americans after the signing of the Dayton Peace Agreement, which would mean for Russia a strengthening of penetration towards Western Europe.

In just a few days, three important political messages came from Hungary to Bosnia and Herzegovina: in the event of European sanctions on Republic of Srpska and Milorad Dodik, they will veto, officially joining the secessionist side led by Dodik, establishing a 100m-euro fund to help Republic of Srpska, and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said: "I will do my best to convince the highest European officials that the key issue, no matter how far the Balkans may be from them than from Hungary, is that the key issue is how to solve the security of a country of two million Muslims. The Balkans cannot be stabilized without Serbs or BiH, and BiH cannot be stabilized without BiH Serbs. The Serbian nation is a key to the Balkans." At the same time, in a very short period of time, Bosnia and Herzegovina was visited by the Hungarian Prime president, Minister, which is known in a lesser amount, the director of the intelligence service, while the Hungarian prime minister announced his visit to Sarajevo.

Why Bosnia and Herzegovina is suddenly so important to Hungary, a member of the EU and NATO, especially a few months before the elections in which inflation is rising in Hungary, because of the anti-European policies, they have their funds from Brussels blocked, and the Hungarian opposition united for the first time since 2010 against Orban and his party, accusing them of corruption and debt slavery that they are leading the country into due to controversial projects with China?

Strengthening the RS dedicated industry


Let's start with what Hungary plans to do in BiH. With the formation of the RS aid fund, they were also caught in Hungary, because this is the first time that the funds of Hungarian citizens are distributed in this way through funds that have so far been exclusively intended for Hungarian communities in other countries. Officially, the fund will provide non-refundable support to small and medium enterprises and farmers. According to unofficial information, Dodik and Orban agreed that the Hungarian state company will be engaged in strengthening the purpose-built industry of this entity as part of investments in Republic of Srpska, but will also try to take over part of the purpose-built industry in the Federation of BiH which is more developed in this moment.

In addition, according to Western intelligence services that have been closely monitoring developments in BiH in recent months, Hungary, along with Serbia, plans to build a humanitarian center in Bosnia and Herzegovina to deal with civil protection.

There is a Civil Protection Mechanism within the European Union. Ten days ago, a final field exercise was held in Banja Luka in which members of the Central Committee of BiH and Croatia participated as part of the project "Capacity Building and Preparation of BiH for the EU Civil Protection Mechanism" implemented by the Civil Protection Directorate of the Ministry of Interior of the Republic of Croatia with the Association for the management of risks from BiH, the EU beneficiaries of the project are the BiH Ministry of Security, the Entity Civil Protection Administration and the Brcko District Public Security Department. In line with European practices, EU invested 2.5 milion Euros to this project, and granted a considerable amount of the specialised equipment and specialised training for the members of BiH civil protection.

Given this, it is not clear what will happen with the Hungarian humanitarian center that will deal with civil protection in BiH? Why is the center planned with Serbia, and with the support of Austria, Slovakia, Slovenia and Croatia?! 

In the Western Balkans, there is currently a Russian-Serbian humanitarian center in Nis, Serbia, which officially deals with civil protection, and according to operational data from Western intelligence services, it is planned in Trebinje within the airports planned to be built by Dodik and Aleksandar Vucic. The center in Nis is close to Bulgaria (hence NATO), and Trebinje airport will be closer to Dubrovnik than the airport in Cilipi, near the BiH border with Croatia (hence, on the border with NATO).

Several years ago, the media exposed the activities of this center by publishing photos of members of the paramilitary formation of the Serbian part who practiced shooting in the center in Nis, and it was stated that they were doing it to oppose Milorad Dodik's opponents. Confirmation of that is the information that they participated in Dodik's military parade organized in Banja Luka on the January 9 celebration. The Serbian part is closely connected with another paramilitary formation, the Night Wolves, which Dodik decorated with an order, and which are on the American black list due to terrorist actions in Ukraine. What they also have in common is that they repeat in public that they are engaged exclusively in "humanitarian work". 

Humanitarian action

The center in Nis is also connected with the attempted coup d'etat in Montenegro, as well as the incident in the Macedonian Parliament which tried to provoke a political crisis in this country. All this confirms that this center is the least engaged in humanitarian work, i.e. that the so-called humanitarian centers are just a cover for paraintelligence work and paramilitary activities well planned within the so-called a new way of warfare devised in the Russian Ministry of Defense, which has been led by Sergei Shoigu for years. Although the Russian-Serbian Humanitarian Center in Nis was officially established by the Russian Ministry of Civil Protection, Emergencies and Disaster Relief, Ivica Dacic, while serving as Serbia's interior minister, boasted in an interview that he founded the center together with Sergei Shoigu. 

In February last year, the Russian ambassador to Serbia, Aleksandar Bocan Kharchenko, emphasized that the activities of the center in Nis are under the constant control of the Russian government and President Vladimir Putin. Why one humanitarian center in Serbia is so important to the Government of Russia and Putin is clearer if you look at what it was officially founded for: in order to provide a humanitarian response to emergency situations on the territory of Serbia and other Balkan countries.

Let us remind you of the occupation of Crimea which, after the "events of the people" in Ukraine for Russian interests, with claims about the right of the people to self-determination, was carried out by paramilitary formations, including those visiting the "humanitarian" center in Nis who were decorated with an order by Dodik.

If the information turns out to be correct, such a "humanitarian" center in Brcko would be of great geostrategic importance for Dodik and Vučić: unification of the territory of Republic of Srpska, which the district now intersects, and its unhindered connection with Serbia; cutting the NATO corridor established by the Americans after the signing of the Dayton Peace Agreement, which would mean for Russia a stronger penetration towards Western Europe in the direction of Serbia, Hungary, Croatia, Slovakia, Austria and Slovenia, with Russia's undoubted dominance in Belarus and events in Ukraine currently.


Due to Milorad Dodik, Bosnia and Herzegovina is a suitable ground for the establishment of centers from which paraintelligence and paramilitary activities will be directed towards Western Europe, which provides Russia, and the pro-Russian media do not hide it, with additional arguments in the geopolitical chess party between East and West which will rule the "heart of the world" (the one who rules Eastern Europe rules the Heartland, the one who rules the Heartland rules the World Island; the one who rules the World Island rules the world) which caused two world wars and one Cold War in Europe, announcing a great come back of Russia led by Putin on the geopolitical scene. 

This is the explanation for why Dodik, as just a pawn listening to the brains of the Kremlin (like Vucic after all), suddenly changed his story and gave up on the secession of Republic of Srpska and started working to strengthen it by destroying all state institutions that could control what is done in Republic of Srpska. Russia's assessment is that Western officials will not intervene in BiH as long as its territorial integrity and sovereignty is unquestioned, i.e. as long as there is no conflict, at least not until the outcome of Ukraine, i.e. the US-Russian agreements that are widely announced (with US insistence to include Europe in everything). 

The end of Hungarian loneliness 

Pro-Russian media, which have significantly strengthened not only in the Western Balkans but also in the EU in recent years, have long announced a new world order in which Russia will play a much more important role than it did after the Cold War in which the politicians of the right in Europe have a very important role, among whom is undoubtedly Orban, who does not hide his autocratic ambitions, which the Kremlin carefully feeds. 

According to the pro-Russian media, the power of another country, which has been underestimated, territorially plundered and neglected on the international scene for a whole century, is being restored in Europe after Turkey. Viktor Orbán is right when he says that one hundred years of Hungarian loneliness have passed irrevocably and Hungary, whether one likes it or not, after serving practically as a buffer zone of the USSR towards the West, imposes itself again as an important European state. ” 

These sources attribute all the credit for the restoration of the "Hungarian Empire" to Orban, because "such a Hungarian position is not accidental, nor does it depend on the good will of Brussels and Berlin, but stems from a well-thought-out and long-term foreign policy strategy for Viktor Orban's 2010 prime ministerial term." It points out that despite numerous criticisms and pressures, Orban continues his close cooperation with China and Russia, so Hungary "rejected all pressures from the European Union and the United States to give up its engagement with Russia on the construction of the second phase of the Hungarian Pax nuclear power plant." And all this happened without any consequences. Elsewhere, even among the members of the European Union, the heads of prime ministers would fall, and their governments would be disbanded, but when it comes to Hungary, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and his government continue to do so without any problems.“ In a similar way the Russian Sputnik is magnifying the relation between Milorad Dodik towards EU and USA and the moves he makes. 

As Milorad Dodik really does not have the strength for what he does without Russian support, and  Orban's "greatness" and "importance" do not stem from his real position and influence in Brussels, but from the pro-Russian media and the support of the Kremlin and Beijing. However, the good economic standard of the citizens and the large EU projects, thanks to which Orban has been in power since 2010, have been seriously shaken. 


At the beginning of December, Hungary was forced to suspend investments of one billion dollars due to the budget deficit, which is a consequence of the highest inflation in this country in the last 14 years. In addition, Hungary was denied 7.2 billion euros from Brussels due to non-compliance with anti-corruption measures, and Hungary is in danger of being fined by the European Court and fined for migration laws, for which the court is already sanctioning Poland with one million euros a day.

Hungary is known in the EU as China's most loyal partner, and in recent years, investments worth billions of euros have been announced, which exclude those that Hungary entered by taking huge loans from China, bringing the country into debt uses, from which it won't have a considerable use. In addition, these large projects, including the construction of the Budapest-Belgrade railway, are already linked to corruption, which is backed by individuals close to Orban. However, the biggest dust was raised by the announcement of the construction of the Shanghai University campus, which should cost 1.5 billion euros, for which Hungary also took a loan from China, although the university is also linked to China's secret services. Due to the construction of the campus, protests were held in Hungary, which were attended by thousands of citizens. 

The policy which has been pursued by Orbán for years could finally come to fruition in April, because in addition to not having the support of Brussels for what he is doing, he is also losing the support of the citizens. For the first time since 2010, the opposition has united and is running with a joint candidate in the election, which is known as pro-European, but also pro-American because he lived in the United States for a while. Media close to Orban have already announced that the United States and Brussels will try to interfere in the next elections in Hungary, sending a clear message about which side Hungary is on at the moment and from whom Orban and his party will have support to stay in power. 

The April defeat of Orban would also be important from the European security aspect, because in addition to pursuing anti-European policies for years, what he is doing and plans to do in Bosnia and Herzegovina is a serious security threat to the entire European Union. With the undermining of Western values, undermined by other right-wingers for years, Hungary, led by Orban and his party, is becoming an increasingly serious security threat given their ties and support for paraintelligence and paramilitary forces aimed at creating a new world order dominated by new/old empires led by autocrats who build empires for themselves and individuals close to them on corruption, to the detriment of all citizens. That is why Hungarian politics is not only dangerous for Bosnia and Herzegovina, but for the entire European Union.



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